Before the Flood Page #7

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on other people in society.

So we'd raise the price of

cigarettes by putting a tax

on cigarettes, people are

gonna consume fewer cigarettes.

Climate change involves a

variety of negative side effects

and costs.

A carbon tax forces people to

take account of those costs.

I think trying to appeal to

people's social responsibility

is really very, very hard,

because people have complicated

lives and they have lots

of things to worry about,

they don't want to have to

think about climate change

every time they do every

decision. They can't.

And every time you turn on your

car, are you supposed to think,

Uh oh, what am I

doing to the climate?

What the carbon tax does is it

nudges them in the direction

of doing the right thing.

So lemme get this straight.

You're a Republican,

who wants more taxes?

Well, one of the

important things to keep in mind

is that if you

have a carbon tax,

you can turn around and cut

other taxes in response.

For example, payroll taxes.

This is a tax shift rather

than a tax increase.

So is it possible to

ever pass a carbon tax now,

given the current

political situation?

I mean, half the people in

office still don't believe

in climate change.

Yes we can!

During the campaign,

President Obama didn't wanna say

the word carbon tax, because

it would poll terribly.

If we wanna change the

president's view of carbon

taxes, we need to change the

public's view of carbon taxes.

Think of gay marriage.

Remember Barack Obama ran

against gay marriage.

I, uh, am not a

supporter of gay marriage.

When did he switch?

When the polls

started switching.

I think same-sex

couples should be able

to get married.

Politicians, whether we

call them our elected leaders,

are really our

elected followers.

They do what the

people want them to do.

We need to preach to

the American people.

Once the American

people are convinced,

the politicians will fall

in line very quickly.

President Obama

and representatives from nearly

200 other countries are trying

to reach an agreement to keep

global warming in check.

In December, the world

will come together at the U.N.

Climate Conference in Paris,

and we will see whether or not

we can muster the collective

political will to reach

an ambitious, comprehensive

agreement.

This is a critical year.

Leo. How you doing, man?

Thank you for your

time, I really appreciate it.

Last time we had a hug

everybody had a, did you see,

it was all over the thing?

It was pretty dangerous.

Oh, really?

Oh, yes I remember that.

I forgot about that!

Good to see you, Secretary.

So, after decades of

failed negotiations,

what makes this negotiation

different from all the rest?

I remember the footage of

George Bush Sr. saying

we've just learned about this

thing called global warming.

We come to Rio

proud of what we've accomplished

and committed to extending the

record on American leadership

on the environment.

I mean, we had climate

summit after climate summit,

and we've seen so little action.

Well, let me tell

you why this is different,

and it really is different.

Last year President Obama was

able to stand up in Beijing

with the Chinese President Shi

and announce intended reductions

in emissions for Paris.

Well guess what, when

the two largest economies

in the world and the two largest

emitters in the world stand up

and make a statement like that,

that's created a momentum

that never existed before.

A lot of things

are coming together.

Tragically, the full measure

of the negative impact

of climate change is

coming together too.

What's happening now is that

you have mass populations

that are moving as a

result of climate.

Or you have

huge fights over water,

which could erupt into wars.

And any extremist

philosophy could appeal

to people if they have nowhere

to live, no way to live,

and that's when

people are vulnerable.

If anybody thinks

I'm kidding about that,

it's happening today.

And the greatest fear about all

of this is leaving this planet

in better shape than we were

given it and that's not

what we're doing today.

Today I spend

most of my time on understanding

how can we secure a prosperous

future for humanity

in a situation where we're

starting to hit the ceiling

of what the planet

can cope with.

And I have the privilege of

chairing something called

the Earth League, which is a

network of leading earth system

scientists, try and gather

really all the knowledge we have

on understanding our

future on, on earth.

We are on average moving

towards a four degrees warming

this century.

And we haven't been in a

four-degree warmer world, um,

for the past four million years.

So it's not as if it's a

place we know very well.

So give me one, sort

of picture of what the world

may look like if we do

not take action.

To begin with, for

the past twelve thousand years,

temperatures are almost

miraculously stable.

In fact, average temperatures

vary within only plus minus

one degrees Celsius during

this entire period.

This perfect planet

with this perfect atmosphere.

Yeah. Exactly.

And so, let us then move

upwards in temperature.

Where are we right now?

Well, today we're

approaching one degree Celsius.

Already it just, 0.85 degrees,

we're seeing faster

than predicted impacts.

This storm is so big, so vast,

60 million Americans

will feel its power.

We're in a historic drought.

The world's coral

reefs begin to collapse

even before two degrees.

And we're predicted

to hit 1.5, to 2 degrees. So.

Already now. So.

That's already

probably gonna happen.

That's already

probably gonna happen.

At 3, 4 degrees, we will have

heat waves which makes

many regions in the world

not livable any longer.

Agriculture will be collapsing

around the equator.

That would take us beyond

being able to responsibly

feed humanity.

What makes scientists so nervous

is that we can reach a point

where earth takes over and

starts reinforcing warming.

This is what we

call tipping points,

and the most obvious

one is Greenland.

Greenland, for the first time,

is melting on its entire surface

to a point where, instead

of being a white surface,

becomes a dark surface, and

suddenly instead of becoming

a cooler, becomes a self-heater.

Because, because of

the fact the ice can no longer

reflect back.

Just the color change.

Just the

color change of the ice.

Suddenly, all these

feedbacks start kicking in.

Methane stuck under frozen

permafrost thaws to a point

where it starts

getting released.

And that in turn

warms the planet even more,

which releases more methane.

Correct.

That's if we don't

take immediate action.

Yes.

That's business as usual.

But the Paris Climate Summit

that we are soon approaching

in December, if world leaders

come together properly,

the window is open,

but barely open,

to transition back

into a stable planet.

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