Earth Days Page #7

---

The idea that somehow

the gross domestic product

of the United States

should double

in the next 50 or 100 years

or something is just nutty.

Economists have clearly shown

that once you have

your basic needs fulfilled,

uh, that further economic growth

and consumption doesn't supply

any more satisfaction.

Americans aren't

any happier today

or more satisfied

than they were in 1950,

despite the growth

we've had in our economy.

Most of us don't have

an experience of growth

the way

it's impacting the planet,

because you get up every morning

and look around,

and it seems to be pretty much

the same as it was yesterday.

Our species just naturally

tends to assume

that change happens,

more or less, linearly.

One, two, three, four,

five, six-- like that.

But in fact, the problems

that are causing

environmental deterioration

arise out of exponential growth,

which is where, instead of going

up by a constant amount

over some time period,

it goes up by a percentage

over some time period.

I've tried to illustrate

what this means

with a very simple example.

I bring out a tablecloth.

I show it to everybody.

I fold it four times.

So I am doubling the thickness

of the tablecloth four times.

And I let everybody see it,

and I say,

"Suppose that that is

half an inch thick,

"not much.

"If I were to fold it

another 15, 16 times,

how thick would it be?"

Now I can't, actually,

but suppose I could do that.

When you keep doubling

the tablecloth,

of course it is growing

exponentially,

and after 21 folds,

it'll be about a mile thick.

If I double it

another five or six times,

it extends out

past the edge of space.

Continuing that process,

rather quickly, it gets you

amazingly big numbers.

With just 39 folds, it's already

shooting past the moon.

That's how quickly

you get to very large numbers

when a process grows

exponentially.

Our book, Limits to Growth,

was the first concrete effort,

using a computer,

to look at trends

that unfold over decades,

even a century.

We were trying

to understand long-term

physical demands

on the planet.

And in the '70s,

we were thinking

that probably in the period

2010 to 2030 was when

the planet would start

to encounter limits.

And that when you

hit the limits,

the tendency is

to overshoot them and collapse,

not to even out

in a nice, orderly fashion.

The book was officially released

in March of 1972

and the inaugural event

was a press conference

in Washington, DC.

I am pleased to have

this opportunity...

The book was rather quickly

translated into 35 languages

and sold millions.

It was a phenomenon.

Here is what

Dr. Meadows' computer shows:

since the year 1900,

the Earth's resources,

there at the top of the chart,

have been steadily used up

as population,

food consumption,

and production of goods

have soared.

Ahead of us,

sometime after the year 2000,

this computer study

foresees calamity.

Resources drop more steeply,

and food and production

follow suit.

Population continues to expand

for perhaps one more generation,

then collapses calamitously

as depravation takes hold.

I remember the first time I saw

that NASA picture of Earth

taken over the moon.

That picture somehow

had the capacity

to just wrench your mind around

so you thought about things

in a different way.

Our curves did that

for a lot of people.

For the first time,

they could start to see

the future consequences

of what they were doing now,

and for many people

that was really shocking.

I went to the first presentation.

I thought it was

potent and powerful.

The thesis that growth

had to be limited

to preserve the quality

of the environment,

the quality of life,

it's a thesis, a theme,

that I still agree with today.

There are limits to growth

and we're bumping

against them right now.

Civilizations have

crashed repeatedly in the past.

Egypt,

Mesopotamia,

the classic Maya,

Greeks civilization and so on.

The thing that's so scary today

is that we have,

for the first time,

a global civilization

that is doing what

many of those other ones did:

building a huge population

and abusing its environment

without any thought

to the consequences.

There can be no doubt

what one subject has aroused

most controversy

amongst scientists

during the past 12 months.

I mean, of course,

the prospect

of doom for mankind

because of pollution,

over-population,

overuse of resources.

What is being called

the "eco-crisis."

Well, I think that

the conclusions of this study

are completely wrong.

If you check...

There were various efforts

to discredit Limits to Growth

and to discredit

Paul Ehrlich's work.

And, indeed,

much of what they said

could come to pass

has not come to pass.

Well, does that mean

they're wrong?

No, what it means is

all we've done is push off

these challenges

that they very rightly

identified.

Would you welcome

Dr. Paul Ehrlich?

Nice to see you again.

It's nice to be

back as always.

You know, you, uh,

you've been on our show

a half a dozen times

or so, and I remember

the first time you

were on the show,

we talked about

The Population Bomb.

And we talked about

the geometric progression

of the number of people that are

accruing to this planet every day.

And I remember at that

time that you said,

and many other population biologists

and sociologists said,

that the time is going to come

when people are going

to have a rude awakening

around the world and especially

in the United States

where they've been used

to so much affluence.

Or we're going to run out

or there is going to be...

It is going to come to a head

sooner or later,

because the resources

of the world are not finite.

And all of a sudden now,

people for, I think,

one of the first times

in history in this country,

really realize

that it's happening.

All right! There it is.

No more gas.

-Let's go!

-No gas?

Let's go. I'm sorry.

No more gas.

3,000 gallons

lasted about two hours.

As America has grown

and prospered

in recent years,

our energy demands

have begun to exceed

available supplies.

Unfortunately, our expectations

for this winter

have now been sharply altered

by the recent conflict

in the Middle East.

Because of that war,

most of the Middle Eastern

oil producers

have reduced overall production

and cut off their shipments

of oil to the United States.

King Faisal of Saudi Arabia

announced an embargo of oil

to the United States,

which was quickly then embraced

by the other Arab members

of OPEC, and so it became

the quote-unquote

"Arab oil embargo."

Oil at that point cost

four dollars a barrel.

It's hard to remember that

America was really built on oil

that cost between two and four

dollars a barrel.

The price rapidly shot up,

getting up

over $16 a barrel--

a 400% increase.

The price of gasoline quadrupled

within just two months.

There was a degree

of desperation

because of shortages

Rate this script:2.6 / 9 votes