Freakonomics
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So I wanna sell my home
and I put on the market for 300,000 dollars
It's a lovely home you have
I'm the agent
Alright so let me start over, that was my ... i'm sorry
Alright I wanna sell my home
I put on the market for 300,000 dollars
I get an offer today for $290k
The question is if I wait a week
and get the offer for the full $300k
Would I rather wait that week and get the full price?
Or take the offer today for $290k
Ah you want to take it now
I'll be the real estate agent
I'm telling you want to take it right now because
because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...
The market is starting to really soften up
with these things you just can never tell
If you get a good offer, I really think it's the right thing to take it
And I'm not speaking out of self-interest cuz I'm the real estate agent
and our interests are aligned
cuz I'm getting a commission out of your sales
I want you to get as much as you can for this house
I really do
When you think about the incentives
that the current contract set up
between the home seller and the agent
representing them, they are not well alligned
But can you ever prove that?
Interestingly, if you look at the sales data on real estate agent own homes
It's not their client's home when they sell their own homes
They get more money than they sell the same home for their client
Now why would that be?
What we find in the data is that agent hold out for better price
and leave their own homes on the market for longer
an average for 10 days longer
But when it comes to your house
The agent has the incentive to sell right away
Why? Cuz sometimes that $10k into his or her pocket
-Only $150 -I only get $150
Because if you take that $10k that goes to him
Half goes to the buyer's real estate agent
So I get half of that six percent
But then I have to kick back half of that to my agency
So I only get one and a half percents
So really, in order for me to help him gets the extra $10k
I personally only gets $150
But I have to work for an extra week
I have to buy all the marketing
I could be off to another client trying to get another
whole commission on another house
So I have a strong incentive to say to him this is a great offer
It's the best offer you can get
I really think you should take it
So no matter what the real estate agency says
and pick up the extra $10k
The agent wouldn't
It's not that real estate agents are bad
It's just that they're human beings and human beings repsond to incentives
If there's only one element
that I say is that almost everything we do
is the idea that incentives matter
and if you can figure out what people's incentives are
you have a good chance to guessing how they're gonna pay it
New prents look at successful families and successful parents
and they just want to copy them and so they try to do the things
they think that they did to get their families so smart
and good and whatever
which is really just a ... can be a bad mistake of correlation cuase isolagi
You're gonna take your kid to ... you know ... every mommy and me music class
and you gonna take him to the museum
and start looking at all the dreaken roman sculptures
you probably already playing mozart in the worm to get the brain really stimulated
and it turns out; that the best that we can tell
from looking at data of actual parents and children along these dimensions
that that stuffs don't really matters
that it just dones't make your child...better
so it might make you happier, might even
make 'em happier, might also make 'em miserable
but it turns out that those are not causo-elements
I always said you can teach a kid just as much as in a grocery store
you can as in a museum, maybe more
has been devoted to figuring out tricky ways to get a cause-eality
because the world just doesn't offer you a cause-eality
okay, what you see in the world is correlation
So what the world gives you is - things are moving together or they aren't
But to be useful, you need to dive down
be able to strip away what's causing what, what's not causing what
The data we looked at
suggests that, by the time you actually have a kid
most of the choices that you make will make you a good parent
you've already made them.
So if you go to the bookstore and buy 10 parenting books,
It's probably not really gonna help the kid that much
But the fact is that you are the kind of person
who as a parent cares enough to buy 10 parenting books even if you dont' read 'em.
That probably means you are a pretty good parent
Just don't think the books are gonna have a magic effect
Ah parents, we wanna believe so much that everything we do
is going to make a difference in our children's lives.
What they eat, where they go to school, who they hang out with
But before any of that takes place,
parents are confronted wth the one single ominous decision
that could shape the entirety of their children's future
what is going to be their name?!
These days, there's an entire industry devoted to naming your baby.
And business is booming
There's magazines, books, websites
There's even high profile baby naming experts.
I'm a baby name expert
I study names, I ask the parents how they choose names for their children
and I look at how names are changing,
because baby names are changing today faster than ever before.
Names are important, because they have a lot to do with your family, your heritage.
Names represent huge, you know what I mean, street creditbility all of that.
Names are definitely a big part of meeting someone
A name can make you popular, and a legend.
Without a name, u're nobody you've got to have a name. It tells your whole identity.
But just how important can name really be?
I mean, unless you're Rockefella or Gates
Can your name have some sort of magical power over your entire destiny?
Not convinced? What about the following stories?
Once upon a time, there was a young mother who thought
she was naming her daughter after her favorite actress on the Cosby show
The smart and firery Tempestt Bledsoe
This is the most humiliating moment of my entire life
and there had been many
But having never seen the way it was spelled
The young mother mistakenly named her new born daughter
Temptress
Well, little Ms. Temptress didn't have an easy life growing up
-I don't even know -What do you mean?
As a teenager, she became sexually promiscuous
Got into a whole bunch of trouble
Back here you little sh*t
That's right. I better not let me catch you
And ended up in court
All Rise!
Leaving the judge to ask her mother
Is young temptress just living up to the expectation of her name?
Was that just one little misplaced 'T' and 'R'
all that stood the life of ease and huxtable success,
verses those long hard days in court ... and 'juvie'
Harvard professor Dr. Roland Fryer was determined to find out just that
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"Freakonomics" Scripts.com. STANDS4 LLC, 2024. Web. 5 Nov. 2024. <https://www.scripts.com/script/freakonomics_8540>.
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