The Age of Consequences

1

[MAN]

NUCLEAR WAR COULD QUITE POSSIBLY

FINISH OFF:

CIVILIZATION ALTOGETHER.

CLIMATE CHANGE:

LEFT TO RUN ITS OWN COURSE

COULD ALSO FINISH US OFF.

THE EXISTENTIAL ISSUE

IS WHETHER WE CAN FORESEE

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

AND GET IT DONE:

IN TIME TO MATTER.

WE ARE ALWAYS IN A RACE

BETWEEN WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE

CAN DO FOR US:

AND WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE

DOES TO US.

[REPORTER]

DROUGHT AND FOOD SHORTAGE...

[REPORTER]

A JUST-RELEASED REPOR FROM THE PENTAGON--

CLIMATE CHANGE:

AND THE CHALLENGES IT'S CREATING

FOR THE MILITARY.

[REPORTER]

THE LATEST REPORT SAYS

GLOBAL WARMING:

IS DRIVING WEATHER

TO NEW LEVELS OF EXTREMES.

[REPORTER]

...A GROWING THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY.

[MAN]

THE PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES

OF A WARMING WORLD

ARE ALREADY WITH US.

[MAN]

CLIMATE CHANGE:

AND NATURAL DISASTERS

CAN CAUSE HUMANITARIAN CRISES,

POPULATION MIGRATIONS.

SCARCITY OF WATER, FOOD,

AND SPACE:

COULD LEAD TO FAILED STATES,

INSTABILITY,

AND POTENTIALLY:

RADICALIZATION.

SENATOR, THERE'S NO QUESTION

THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC AFFEC ON OVERALL SECURITY

BOTH IN INDIVIDUAL STATES

AND REGIONALLY.

[MAN]

NEVER BEFORE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE

FLED WAR AND PERSECUTION.

[MAN]

THIS IS CLIMATE CHANGE

FAR BEYOND THE MELTING ICE CAPS.

[MAN]

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,

WHILE NOT NEW TO HISTORY,

IS NEW TO THE MODERN WORLD.

IT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY

ADD TO THE CHALLENGES

OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY:

HUNGER, POVERTY,

AND CONFLICT.

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ARE FAR-REACHING

AND UNPREDICTABLE,

DEMANDING OUR ATTENTION

AND STRATEGIC THINKING.

THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

IS PREPARING TO ADAPT TO THESE

21st CENTURY CHALLENGES.

[MAN]

THE INTERSECTION

OF CLIMATE CHANGE

AND THE SECURITY OF NATIONS

WILL BECOME A DEFINING REALITY

IN THE YEARS AHEAD.

WE CANNOT IGNORE THE COSTS

OF INACTION:

AND WE CANNOT LEAVE THESE

MASSIVE SECURITY CONCERNS

TO THE NEXT GENERATION.

WE ARE NOW IN THE AGE

OF CONSEQUENCES.

[MICHAEL BREEN]

THINK ABOUT IT FROM

A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE.

WHEN I WAS LEADING

PARATROOPERS IN AFGHANISTAN,

IF 98,

99% OF MY INTELLIGENCE

TOLD ME THAT I WAS DRIVING

MY PLATOON DOWN A ROAD

AND THAT TWO MILES

DOWN THAT ROAD:

THERE'S AN AMBUSH

WAITING FOR ME.

[GUNS FIRING]

I DON'T GET TO SAY,

"YEAH, BUT THERE'S THAT 1%

THAT SAYS:

THAT THERE'S NO AMBUSH,

SO TO HELL:

WITH THE OTHER 99%.

WE'RE GONNA

KEEP GOING DOWN THE ROAD."

I MEAN, THAT'S NEGLIGENCE

ON AN UNFATHOMABLE SCALE.

THAT'S THE DEBATE

WE'RE HAVING RIGHT NOW

WITH REGARD TO CLIMATE.

THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS

IS WE ARE FACING

A MASSIVE RISK.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING.

WE'VE GOT TO DECIDE WHETHER

WE'RE GOING TO ACT ON IT OR NOT.

AND THAT CHOICE:

HAS CONSEQUENCES.

[FRANCESCO FEMIA]

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

THE BASIC RESOURCES

THAT ARE NECESSARY

FOR HUMANS TO SURVIVE

AND FOR NATIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS WE SEE OUR RESOURCES

STRESSED SIGNIFICANTLY,

WE'RE GONNA SEE SOME

UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES

THAT WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR.

THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACT ON EVERY FACET OF LIFE.

THEY IMPACT ON EVERY FACE OF NATIONAL SECURITY

AND OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY.

THAT MAKES INSTABILITY.

THAT MAKES CONFLIC MUCH MORE LIKELY.

[CHRISTIAN PARENTI]

THE FIRST TIME I THOUGHT ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE AND VIOLENCE

WAS IN AFGHANISTAN

WHILE RESEARCHING OPIUM POPPY

FROM WHICH HEROIN IS MADE.

EVERY TIME:

I INTERVIEWED FARMERS,

THEY SAID, "PART OF WHY

WE GROW THIS CROP

IS BECAUSE:

IT'S DROUGHT-RESISTANT."

TURNS OUT AFGHANISTAN

IS GOING THROUGH THE WORS DROUGHT IN LIVING MEMORY,

AND POPPY USES ONE FIFTH

THE AMOUNT OF WATER

THAT WHEAT USES.

THE KARZAI GOVERNMEN WERE ERADICATING POPPY.

THE TALIBAN,

ON THE OTHER HAND,

SAID TO THE FARMERS,

"WE WILL DEFEND YOUR RIGH TO GROW THIS CROP."

EVEN IN THAT CONFLICT WHICH

HAS THIS ELABORATE HISTORY,

THERE IS A CLIMATE ASPECT.

IT'S ALWAYS A QUESTION

OF HOW CLIMATE CHANGE

INTERACTS WITH OTHER

PRE-EXISTING PROBLEMS.

IF YOU HAVE AN AREA

THAT IS ALREADY UNSTABLE

AND THEN HAS THE ADDITIONAL

CHALLENGE OF SEA LEVEL RISE,

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS,

WATER SHORTAGES:

OR FOOD SHORTAGES

OR A DISASTER:

THAT MAKES PEOPLE MOVE,

THEN YOU CAN START SEEING

CONFLICT SITUATIONS.

IT'S ALL

THE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE STIMULUS

OR THE CATALYS THAT CAN CAUSE ALL OF THA TO AGITATE AND BECOME CONFLICT.

[SHOUTING, GUNS FIRING]

FROM MY PERSPECTIVE

AS A FORMER MEMBER

OF THE UNITED STATES MILITARY

AND 30 PLUS YEARS

OF SERVICE IN UNIFORM,

CLIMATE CHANGE IS WHAT WE CALL

AN ACCELERANT TO INSTABILITY.

IT IS WHAT'S CAUSING

A LOT OF THE CONFLIC OR HELPING ASSIST THE CONFLIC THAT'S GOING ON

AROUND THE WORLD.

AND YOU CAN SEE THA ON THE FRONT PAGES

OF THE PAPER:

VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY.

[GIRL SINGING

IN NATIVE LANGUAGE]

[EXPLOSION]

[MAN SPEAKING

ON DISTANT P.A. SYSTEM]

[GUN FIRES]

[BREEN]

IF YOU LOOK:

AROUND THE WORLD TODAY,

WE CAN ALREADY SEE

CONFLICT AND CLIMATE IN PLAY

RIGHT UNDER THE HEADLINES

THAT WE'RE READING.

[REPORTER]

THE INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS

IS NOW DESIGNATING

SYRIA'S DEADLY CONFLIC TO BE A FULL-BLOWN

CIVIL WAR.

[BREEN]

THINK ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS

WE DON'T OFTEN LOOK AT.

THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA,

NOW GOING ON FOR YEARS,

HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS DEAD,

THE ENTIRE REGION

IS IN CHAOS AS A RESULT.

[REPORTER]

A NEW STUDY FINDS

CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED

THE WORST DROUGHT EVER

IN MODERN SYRIA:

AS A CONSEQUENCE

OF HUMAN INTERFERENCE.

[REPORTER]

PROFESSOR RICHARD SEAGER

SAYS THA A THREE-YEAR DROUGH PLAYED A HUGE ROLE

IN PUSHING THE SYRIAN PEOPLE

INTO AN ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR.

THIS IS THE FIRST STUDY

THAT QUANTITATIVELY

DRAWS A CONNECTION

BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE

AND THE ONSE OF A CONFLICT.

SYRIA BEGAN TO EXPERIENCE

A SERIOUS MULTI-YEAR DROUGH IN THE WINTER OF 2006, 2007.

AND THAT DROUGHT LASTED

FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS.

FARMING FAMILIES JUS CANNOT SURVIVE ON THE LAND

WHEN A DROUGH LASTS THAT LONG.

[CHENEY]

AS PEOPLE TRY TO FEED

THEIR FAMILIES AND CAN'T,

THEY'VE GOT TO GO SOMEWHERE.

[BREEN]

THE DROUGHT CAUSED

A LARGE NUMBER:

OF YOUNG SYRIAN:

MEN IN PARTICULAR

TO LEAVE FARMLAND

AND GO TO THE CITIES.

[CHENEY]

DAMASCUS, ALEPPO,

ONE AND A HALF PLUS

MILLION PEOPLE HAD TO MOVE.

[BREEN]

THAT HAS A MAJOR

DESTABILIZING IMPAC WHEN PEOPLE HAVE

TO PICK UP AND LEAVE

WHETHER IT'S BECAUSE OF CONFLIC OR RESOURCE SCARCITY.

AS ANYONE CAN TELL YOU,

A BUNCH OF UNEMPLOYED

YOUNG MEN IN A MAJOR CITY

IS NOT A RECIPE:

FOR SOCIAL STABILITY.

[SEAGER]

NOW SYRIA HAD ALREADY ABSORBED

ABOUT A MILLION:

AND A HALF REFUGEES

FROM IRAQ WHO WERE FLEEING

THE CIVIL WAR THERE.

THOSE NUMBERS COMBINED SUCH

THAT THE POPULATION

OF SYRIAN CITIES

GREW BY ABOUT 30% OR MORE.

THAT RATE OF MIGRATION

IS ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC.

IT DROVE FOOD PRICES UP,

IT DROVE APARTMENT PRICES UP,

STRAINED THE HEALTH SYSTEM,

ALL LEADING TO THE KINDS

OF CONDITIONS OF DISCONTEN TO THE ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR

THAT IS STILL GOING ON NOW.

WHEN WE ANALYZED ALL

THE PRECIPITATION DATA

WE COULD GET,

WE FOUND THAT WE JUS COULDN'T ATTRIBUTE

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