The Age of Consequences Page #2

SUCH A LONG AND SERIOUS DROUGH TO NATURAL CLIMATE

VARIABILITY ALONE.

[PARENTI]

THAT PARTICULAR DROUGHT WAS

TWO TO THREE TIMES MORE LIKELY

BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

[SEAGER]

WE OF COURSE DID NOT SAY

DROUGHT WAS THE SOLE CAUSE

OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.

IT'S THE CONFLUENCE

OF MULTIPLE CAUSES COMING IN,

WITH CLIMATE:

BEING ONE OF THEM.

[FEMIA]

CLIMATE CHANGE:

IS ALL ABOUT THE WATER.

SO WE HAVE CLIMATE CHANGE

LEADING TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY.

WE DON'T NECESSARILY KNOW

WHEN THE WATER IS GONNA COME.

WE CAN'T PREDIC THAT WE'RE GONNA GE THE SAME AMOUNT OF WATER

AS WE USED TO GET,

AND THAT IS GOING TO HAVE

A HUGE IMPAC ON WHETHER OR NO WE CAN GROW FOOD.

SO IN THE CASE OF SYRIA,

WE'RE TALKING ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS WATER RESOURCES,

HOW THAT IMPACTS FOOD RESOURCES,

AND WHAT THAT MEANS

FOR WHAT PEOPLE DO FOR A LIVING,

WHETHER IT'S FARM,

HERD ANIMALS,

OR JOIN A TERRORIS ORGANIZATION.

[REPORTER]

THIS IS A CITY DRAPED IN BLACK

AND A CITY RAGING WITH ANGER.

[REPORTER]

THIS IS ISIS,

THE ISLAMIC STATE

OF IRAQ AND SYRIA.

[CHENEY]

AS PEOPLE MOVED:

INTO THOSE CITIES IN SYRIA,

THEY WERE UNEMPLOYED,

DIDN'T HAVE A SOURCE OF FOOD.

THEY NEEDED:

TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES.

ISIL PROMISED THEM

BOTH THOSE THINGS

DESPITE THE PHILOSOPHY

BEHIND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS,

PEOPLE WANT TO SURVIVE FIRST.

[SEAGER]

ISIS WAS PRE-EXISTING

IN THE REGION:

AND WOULD HAVE EXISTED

EVEN THERE HAD NOT BEEN

A DROUGHT IN SYRIA,

BUT ONCE THE SYRIAN SOCIETY

BEGAN TO UNRAVEL,

EVERY ACTOR:

WITHIN THAT REGION

SAW AN OPPORTUNITY

TO TRY TO USE THE CRISIS

TO ADVANCE:

THEIR PRE-EXISTING AGENDA.

[FEMIA]

ISIS HAS CERTAINLY

TAKEN ADVANTAGE:

OF SCARCE WATER RESOURCES,

CREATING LEVERAGE

OVER LOCAL POPULATIONS.

[REPORTER]

ISIS HAS JUS TAKEN OVER A DAM

NEAR THE KEY CITY OF RAMADI,

SHUTTING IT DOWN

AND PREVENTING WATER

FROM REACHING:

TWO KEY TOWNS.

THEIR GOAL, TO QUOTE

"KILL PEOPLE OF THIRST."

[BREEN]

THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS

TO RIVER TOWNS.

THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS

TO WATER SUPPLIES,

AND IT'S DRIVING THEIR STRATEGY.

[CHENEY]

WATER BECOMES:

AN INSTRUMENT OF WAR

FOR THESE PEOPLE

WHO ARE LOOKING TO TAKE OVER.

YOU CONTROL THE WATER,

YOU CONTROL THE LIVELIHOOD

OF THE PEOPLE.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS GONNA IMPAC THE AMOUNT OF WATER.

IT'LL IMPAC WHO CONTROLS THE WATER.

THAT'LL IMPAC THE INSTABILITY.

[SEAGER]

THE CLIMATE CHANGE THA WE'RE GONNA BE EXPERIENCING

OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS

IS WAY IN EXCESS

OF WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED

UP TO NOW.

AND I THINK THE SYRIA CASE

IS A REAL WAKE-UP

FOR WHA THE CONSEQUENCES CAN BE,

AND THIS IS REALLY EARLY ON

IN THIS GAME.

[PARENTI]

IT'S IN THE U.S.

NATIONAL INTERES TO ENSURE THAT THERE'S

A STABILITY GLOBALLY.

THOSE ARE THINGS

THAT CAN COME HOME TO US.

[TIMOTHY SNYDER]

YOU CAN ALWAYS LOOK AT SYRIA

AND SAY, "WELL, IT'S ISIS,"

OR, "WELL, IT'S ASSAD."

YES, IT IS ISIS.

YES, IT'S ASSAD.

BUT THERE'S A BACKDROP

WHICH HAS TO DO WITH CLIMATE.

THAT'S GONNA HAPPEN

OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

EACH TIME WE'LL HAVE

A DIFFERENT POLITICAL

OR IDEOLOGICAL STORY TO TELL,

EACH TIME IT'LL BE TRUE,

AND EACH TIME THE UNDERLYING

FACTOR WILL BE CLIMATE.

[BURKE]

WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE,

IT'S A NATIONAL

SECURITY CHALLENGE

IN THE BROADES POSSIBLE SENSE,

IN THAT THESE CHANGING

WEATHER PATTERNS OVER TIME

ARE GOING TO AFFEC THE WAY WE LIVE.

THEY'RE GOING TO AFFEC OUR FOOD SUPPLY,

OUR WATER SUPPLY, THE HEA OF THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN.

SECURITY IN THE BROADEST SENSE

IS ABOUT ALL THE THINGS

THAT WE CARE ABOUT DAY TO DAY.

ARE YOU SAFE?

CAN YOU FEED YOUR FAMILY?

CAN YOUR CHILDREN

GO TO SCHOOL?

WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE

AS A NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGE

IN THE MILITARY SENSE,

YOU'RE TALKING ABOU HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THE MILITARY HAS TO DO?

THE MISSIONS IT GOES ON,

OR SUPPORT HERE AT HOME.

HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE

READY FOR IN THE FUTURE?

[GEORGE H.W. BUSH]

WE ALL KNOW:

THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES

ARE CHANGING THE ATMOSPHERE

IN UNEXPECTED:

AND IN UNPRECEDENTED WAYS.

I FIRST SAW THE EFFECTS

ON NATIONAL SECURITY

AND NATIONAL DEFENSE

IN SOMALIA IN THE EARLY '90s.

THE ESSENTIAL NATURE

OF THAT CONFLIC WAS ORIGINALLY

CAUSED BY DROUGH AND A LACK OF FOOD,

SIMPLY STATED,

AND WE BEGAN TO SEE

A MAJOR TREND.

CLIMATE CHANGE:

IS ONE OF THE VARIABLES

THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED

WHEN THINKING ABOU INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD.

[WOMAN]

I'D LIKE TO TURN NOW

TO SHERRI GOODMAN.

SHE SERVED AS DEPUTY

UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE

FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY.

[GOODMAN]

LIKE MANY OF YOU

PROBABLY NOW,

YOU WANT TO WORK ON

THE BIG ISSUES OF THE DAY.

THAT'S WHAT I WANTED TO DO,

SO I WAS IN THE FIELD

OF NATIONAL SECURITY.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ARMS CONTROL

WERE THE BIG CHALLENGES,

BUT IT WAS ACTUALLY

DURING AN ERA:

WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

BEGAN TO BE IMPLEMENTED

IN PLACES LIKE:

THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT.

AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY,

THERE BEGAN TO BE RECOGNITION

THAT THERE WAS A NEXUS BETWEEN

WHAT'S HAPPENING

IN CLIMATE CHANGE

AND NATIONAL SECURITY.

WE'VE SEEN THIS ESTIMATION

OF CLIMATE CHANGE

AS A SIGNIFICANT RISK

SINCE THE EARLY DAYS

OF THE GEORGE W. BUSH

ADMINISTRATION.

THE VERY FIRST REPORT FROM

THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

WAS IN 2003

AND IDENTIFIED THE POTENTIAL

NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS

OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE.

I WAS ASKED TO TAKE ON

THIS CHALLENGE DIRECTLY

IN ABOUT THE 2006 TIME FRAME,

AND SO I GATHERED

THE NATION'S

LEADING RETIRED:

MILITARY OFFICERS.

AS A GROUP, WE ARE NOT YOUR

TRADITIONAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS.

CNA's MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD

IS A GROUP OF SENIOR RETIRED

ADMIRALS AND GENERALS

FROM ALL FIVE SERVICES THA HAVE CHANGED THE CONVERSATION.

THE VIEW OF THE MILITARY

ADVISORY BOARD:

IS THAT WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL

WE HAVE ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY.

IF WE WAIT,

WE MIGHT WAIT TOO LONG.

[GOODMAN]

WE RELEASED OUR INITIAL REPOR "NATIONAL SECURITY AND

THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE"

IN 2007.

WE REALIZED:

THAT CLIMATE CHANGE

WOULD BE A THREAT MULTIPLIER

FOR INSTABILITY.

PEOPLE BECOME DESPERATE BECAUSE

THEY HAVE EXTREME WEATHER

AND THE SEAS ARE RISING

AND THERE ARE FLOODS IN ONE

AREA AND DROUGHTS IN ANOTHER.

FRAGILE STATES BECOME

MORE UNPREDICTABLE.

[BURKE]

THAT WAS DEFINITIONAL.

WHEN THAT STUDY CAME OUT,

IT REALLY SET A BASELINE FOR HOW

TO TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE.

[MAN]

ONE OF THE KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

OF THE CNA REPOR WAS TO INCORPORATE

THE CONSEQUENCES

OF CLIMATE CHANGE

INTO A NATIONAL:

INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.

[MARCUS D. KING]

IN 2008, THE IDEA

THAT CAME OUT OF THAT REPOR WAS CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED

EXISTING SOCIETAL TENSIONS.

SOCIAL TENSIONS:

AND ECONOMIC COSTS

COULD LEAD TO STATE

OR REGIONAL INSTABILITY

THREATENING U.S. INTEREST.

IT COULD CONTRIBUTE

TO INTER-

AND MORE LIKELY:

INTRASTATE CONFLICTS.

CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY

WORKED ITS WAY:

INTO THE HIGHEST-LEVEL

STRATEGIC DOCUMENT PRODUCED

BY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.

[BREEN]

THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE

REVIEW,

THE PENTAGON'S

BEDROCK STRATEGIC DOCUMENT,

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