The Age of Consequences Page #3

HAS CONSISTENTLY IDENTIFIED

CLIMATE CHANGE:

AS AN ACCELERAN OF INSTABILITY OR CONFLICT.

IT WAS REALLY THE FIRST TIME

THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WAS

ADDRESSED AT THAT LEVEL.

WE NOW SEE THIS SIGNED OU BY THE SECRETARIES OF DEFENSE.

[FEMIA]

THE CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION ROAD MAP

IDENTIFIED CLIMATE CHANGE

AS POSING IMMEDIATE RISKS

TO NATIONAL SECURITY.

[GOODMAN]

2014, WE FOUND THA THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ARE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE

AND THAT THEY ARE NOW

A CATALYST FOR CONFLICT.

[TITLEY]

WE'VE TURNED THE CORNER,

AND WE REALLY SEE

THAT CLIMATE CHANGE

IS ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES

OF THE 21st CENTURY.

[BURKE]

I CAN REMEMBER ONCE

GETTING IN A DISCUSSION

WITH A CAREER CIVILIAN

AT THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

WHO WAS EXPRESSING CONCERN

ABOUT TALKING:

ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

AND SAID:

WE HAVE TO USE LANGUAGE

THAT DOESN'T, YOU KNOW,

OFFEND PEOPLE,

THAT DOESN'T SAY

THIS IS REALLY HAPPENING.

AND I JUST LOOKED AT HIM

AND I SAID,

"THAT'S INCOMPATIBLE

WITH U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY,"

AND I, YOU KNOW,

CITED ALL THESE REPORTS,

AND SAID, "YOU NEED TO LOOK

AT WHAT YOUR OWN

GOVERNMENT IS SAYING

AND WORK FROM THAT."

[MAN]

WE'RE GONNA BEGIN

BY RECOGNIZING:

WHERE ADMIRAL DAVID TITLEY

WAS A MEMBER OF CNA

MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD.

WHENEVER YOU'RE READY,

PLEASE BEGIN.

[TITLEY]

I'M HERE TODAY

NOT ONLY REPRESENTING

MY VIEWS ON SECURITY

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE,

BUT ON THE COLLECTIVE WISDOM

OF 16 ADMIRALS AND GENERALS.

SIR, OUR COLLECTIVE,

BOTTOM-LINE JUDGMEN IS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE

IS AN ACCELERATING RISK

TO OUR NATION'S FUTURE.

THESE SERIOUS IMPACTS

TO OUR SECURITY:

WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE

IN BOTH FREQUENCY

AND CONSEQUENCE.

FAILURE TO THINK ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE

MIGHT IMPACT OUR GLOBALLY

INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS

AND ALL ELEMENTS

OF U.S. POWER AND SECURITY

IS FRANKLY A FAILURE

OF IMAGINATION.

[LEON FUERTH]

THERE'S A TENDENCY TO SEPARATE

THINKING ABOUT DOMESTIC EVENTS

FROM INTERNATIONAL EVENTS

AS IF THAT WAS A REAL BARRIER.

WHAT WE DO IN THIS COUNTRY

HAS A STRONG IMPACT ON PEOPLE

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

AND VICE VERSA.

SO YOU REALLY HAVE

TO START LOOKING

AT RECIPROCAL INTERACTIONS

BETWEEN EVENTS:

IN DIFFERENT PARTS

OF THE WORLD.

WHEN IT COMES TO SOMETHING

LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE,

YOU BEGIN TO WORRY

ABOUT PHENOMENA:

THAT YOU WEREN'T COUNTING ON

KICKING IN AT SOME

INDETERMINATE LEVEL.

[REPORTER]

RUSSIA IS ON FIRE.

MORE THAN 500 WILDFIRES

RAGING ACROSS:

THE DROUGHT-PLAGUED COUNTRY.

[REPORTER]

THE HEAT WAVE:

HAS RAVAGED FARM LAND

AND DESTROYED CROPS

OVER AN AREA:

THE SIZE OF PORTUGAL.

[REPORTER]

THIS DISASTER COULD DESTROY

ONE OF THE NATION'S

BIGGEST EXPORTS, WHEAT.

[FEMIA]

IN 2010, THERE WAS

A MAJOR DROUGH WHICH LED TO HEAT WAVES

IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

AND IN CHINA,

WHICH REALLY:

DEVASTATED THE WHEAT CROP

IN THOSE COUNTRIES.

[REPORTER]

IT'S THE WORST DROUGH IN 200 YEARS.

CHINA'S IN A CRISIS,

BUT THIS IS ONE:

FOR THE WORLD TO WATCH.

[REPORTER]

COMMODITY TRADERS HAVE REACTED

TO THE FIRES AND DROUGH BY PUSHING UP

THE PRICE OF WHEA TO A 23-MONTH HIGH.

[FEMIA]

CHINA, RUSSIA STARTED BUYING

A LOT OF WHEA ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET,

DROVE THE PRICES UP

SIGNIFICANTLY.

[SEAGER]

BECAUSE FOOD IS TRADED GLOBALLY,

FOOD PRICES CAN BE INFLUENCED

BY WHAT'S GOING ON

ALL OVER THE WORLD.

IF YOU ARE BUYING BREAD

IN DAMASCUS OR IN CAIRO,

THAT GRAIN HAS BEEN TRADED

ON AN INTERNATIONAL MARKET,

SO IT IS SENSITIVE

TO CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

FROM KANSAS,

THE SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA,

AND IN URUGUAY:

AND ARGENTINA.

WHAT HAPPENS GLOBALLY MATTERS.

[SNYDER]

GLOBALIZATION IS INHERENTLY

UNPREDICTABLE.

SINCE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

ARE ALL IN ONE:

GLOBAL MARKET NOW,

WHAT CHINA DOES:

WHEN IT PANIC-BUYS

IS IT AFFECTS MARKETS

ALL OVER THE WORLD.

[SEAGER]

LARGE SHOCKS:

ON THE GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY

WILL ALWAYS AFFEC THE MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE,

BECAUSE WHEN THE PRICES

ARE BEING DETERMINED

INTERNATIONALLY,

THE FOOD WILL GO TO THOSE PEOPLE

WHO HAVE THE MOST MONEY.

INEVITABLY,

THE POORER OF THE WORLD

WILL BE THE ONES WHO BEAR

THE BRUNT OF ANY SHORTFALL.

[FEMIA]

NOW, EGYPT IS ONE

OF THOSE COUNTRIES

THAT'S HEAVILY DEPENDEN ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET.

[REPORTER]

WITH A POPULATION

OF MORE THAN 80 MILLION,

THE DEMAND FOR DAILY BREAD

IS HIGH.

IT HAS MADE EGYPT THE WORLD'S

LARGEST IMPORTER OF WHEAT.

IN A NUMBER OF AREAS

AROUND THE COUNTRY,

THE PRICE OF WHEA WENT UP 300%.

[REPORTER]

IN A COUNTRY THAT HAS TO IMPOR MORE THAN HALF

THE WHEAT IT NEEDS,

FLOUR HAS STARTED TO LOOK

LIKE GOLD DUST.

RUSSIA STOPPED EXPORTING WHEA TO THE MIDDLE EAS DURING THAT PERIOD.

[TRANSLATOR]

DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH

TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT,

I BELIEVE IT IS REASONABLE

TO INTRODUCE:

A TEMPORARY BAN ON GRAIN

AND WHEAT PRODUCT EXPORTS

FROM THE TERRITORY

OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.

WHEN THEY CUT THAT WHEAT OFF,

THINGS BECAME VERY UNSTABLE.

[CROWD CHANTING]

[REPORTER]

THIS IS WHA POPULAR UPRISING LOOKS LIKE.

[REPORTER]

PROTESTERS DEMANDING

BREAD AND FREEDOM

AND CALLING FOR GOVERNMEN OFFICIALS TO STEP DOWN.

[TITLEY]

IF YOU EITHER DON'T HAVE FOOD

OR YOU HAVE FOOD

BUT NOW YOU HAVE TO PAY

A WHOLE LOT MORE FOR I AND YOU DON'T HAVE

THAT DISPOSABLE INCOME,

IT BECOMES A HUGE THREAT.

YOU'RE PROBABLY

GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

[REPORTER]

THESE PROTESTS SEEM TO BE

A KIND OF CHAIN REACTION

ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.

[REPORTER]

FOR DECADES, ANGER HAS SIMMERED

THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD--

ANGER OVER:

CORRUPT GOVERNMENTS,

POVERTY,

AND A LACK OF FREEDOM.

IT'S NOT JUST THIS VERY SIMPLE

"IF A, THEN B."

CLIMATE CHANGE CAN BE

ONE OF THE CAUSES

IN KIND OF:

A CHAIN OF EVENTS SCENARIO

LIKE IN THE ARAB SPRING

THAT EXACERBATES AN ALREADY

VOLATILE POLITICAL SITUATION.

[REPORTER]

CENTRAL CAIRO, A BATTLEFIELD.

[REPORTER]

BULLETS WERE FLYING

AROUND TAHRIR SQUARE.

[CLATTERING, SCREAMING]

[REPORTER]

PROTESTERS LOOTED WEAPONS

AND TURNED THEM ON POLICE.

[PARENTI]

THE SUDDEN SHOCKS

OF CLIMATE CHANGE

CAN LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS

AND COLLAPSES.

SO YOU'RE GONNA HAVE

FRAGILE SOCIAL SYSTEMS

THAT JUST NEED ONE MORE SHOCK

TO TIP THEM OVER THE EDGE

INTO A DIFFERENT CONFIGURATION,

INTO SOCIAL BREAKDOWN,

INTO WAR.

[CROWD SHOUTING,

HORNS HONKING]

[SNYDER]

WE HAVE HAD,

FOR A COUPLE OF GENERATIONS,

A SENSE THAT FOOD

IS NOT PART OF POLITICS.

THIS IS SHORT-TERM,

I'M AFRAID.

THE PROBLEMS:

THAT WE'RE HAVING NOW

ARE UNFORTUNATELY

A SMALL FORE TASTE

OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN BECAUSE

OF THE INTERDEPENDENCE

OF CLIMATE, ECONOMICS,

AND POLITICS.

IT'S GENERALLY THE CASE

THAT ALL SOCIETIES

SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE

THINKING ABOUT THE MIDDLE

AND THE LONG-TERM FUTURE.

SINCE THERE IS A HISTORY

OF CATASTROPHE,

WHEN WE LOOK AT OURSELVES

IN THE PRESENT DAY,

HISTORY IS THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY

THAT WE HAVE FOR PERSPECTIVE.

[SOLOMON HSIANG]

WHEN WE LOOK BACK

INTO THE HISTORICAL RECORD,

WE ACTUALLY SEE THA THE COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATIONS,

PLACES LIKE ANGKOR WAT,

WHERE WHOLE POLITICAL

SYSTEMS CRUMBLED,

THOSE THINGS:

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