The Age of Consequences Page #4

SEEM TO HAVE OCCURRED

RIGHT AT THE SAME TIME

THAT REALLY LARGE-SCALE

GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES

WERE OCCURRING.

THE TONG DYNASTY AND

THE CLASSIC MAYA CIVILIZATION

COLLAPSED AT ALMOS EXACTLY THE SAME TIME

ON OPPOSITE SIDES

OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

THERE WAS:

THIS LARGE-SCALE EVEN THAT LED TO SYSTEMATIC

DRYING AND WARMING

THROUGHOUT BOTH:

OF THESE REGIONS,

AND TWO GREA CIVILIZATIONS FELL.

THERE WAS A REALLY COHERENT,

VIVID PICTURE:

ABOUT HOW HUMAN SOCIETY

AROUND THE WORLD

AND THROUGHOUT TIME

HAS BEEN INTERACTING

WITH THE CLIMATE.

ANYWHERE WE LOOK,

WE SEE THE SAME THING.

IT'S PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOS REPEATED FINDINGS

IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS

IN THE FIELD.

[SNYDER]

PAST SOCIETIES COULD OBSERVE

CROP FAILURE,

BUT THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW

TO EXPLAIN IT.

WHAT GIVES US A CHANCE

IS THAT WE CAN OBSERVE

NOT ONLY LOCAL SYMPTOMS

OF A PROBLEM LIKE CROP FAILURE.

WE CAN ALSO OBSERVE

THE ENTIRE GLOBE

AND DRAW CONCLUSIONS.

THE QUESTION:

IS WHETHER WE DECIDE

WE'RE GONNA DO THAT OR NOT.

TODAY I WANT TO SPEAK TO YOU

ABOUT THE NATIONAL

SECURITY RISKS:

POSED BY A CHANGING CLIMATE.

JUST LAST MONTH,

THE ADMINISTRATION ISSUED

ITS 2015

NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY.

THE STRATEGY:

INCLUDES CLIMATE CHANGE

AS ONE OF EIGH TOP STRATEGIC RISKS

ALONG WITH:

A CATASTROPHIC ATTACK

ON THE UNITED STATES SOIL

AND THE PROLIFERATION

OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.

CLIMATE CHANGE, ONCE CONSIDERED

AN ISSUE FOR A DISTANT FUTURE,

HAS MOVED FIRMLY

INTO THE PRESENT.

WE SAW THIS:

DRAMATICALLY HAPPEN HERE

IN THE UNITED STATES

WITH SUPER STORM SANDY.

THE STORM SURGE WENT OVER

A 12 1/2 FOOT WALL

PROTECTING A ELECTRICAL SYSTEM

AND IMMEDIATELY PLUNGED

LOWER MANHATTAN INTO DARKNESS.

WITHOUT ELECTRICITY,

OUR TRANSPORTATION

AND HEALTH SECTORS

BEGAN TO COLLAPSE.

WE CAN SEE FROM EVENTS

OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS

THE INCREASING NOT ONLY SEVERITY

OF NATURAL DISASTERS,

BUT THE UNPREDICTABILITY

OF THEIR CONSEQUENCES.

AS OUR WORLD BECOMES

MORE INTERCONNECTED,

AS DISASTERS HAPPEN IN DIFFEREN AND UNPREDICTABLE WAYS,

THEY CAUSE CASCADING IMPACTS

THROUGH OUR COMMUNITIES,

THROUGH OUR SOCIETIES,

THROUGH OUR INFRASTRUCTURE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR WHAT WE CALL

CASCADING DISASTERS

ARE MUCH CLOSER TO HOME.

WE'RE SEEING IN THE WES OF THE UNITED STATES

UNPRECEDENTED DROUGHT...

WHICH SPARKS FOREST FIRES.

AT THE SAME TIME,

WE MIGHT NEED TO BE RESPONDING

TO INCREASED ACTIVITY

IN THE ARCTIC.

WE MIGHT BE SEEING

SEA LEVEL RISE IN FLORIDA

AND ON THE EAST COAS INTERACT WITH MAJOR STORMS

THAT MIGHT BECOME MORE INTENSE.

AND AS WE GO FORWARD

AS THE CLIMATE CHANGES,

WE MIGHT SEE THOSE THINGS STAR TO HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY.

ARE WE READY TO DEAL

WITH MULTIPLE DISASTERS

AT THE SAME TIME

WITHIN THE UNITED STATES?

THAT'S AN OPEN QUESTION.

WE'VE ALSO GOT TO THINK ABOU THE SECURITY

OF OUR BASES AT HOME.

NORFOLK, VIRGINIA,

IS WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY

OF THE U.S. NAVY'S ATLANTIC

COMBAT CAPABILITY IS BASED.

IT'S ALSO AT EXTREME RISK

OF SEA LEVEL RISE.

[SEN. TIM KAINE]

THE HAMPTON ROADS

REGION OF MY STATE

IS HOME TO THE LARGEST NAVAL

INSTALLATION IN THE WORLD,

NAVAL STATION NORFOLK.

STUDIES SHOW:

THAT THE MAIN NORFOLK ROAD

INTO THE LARGEST NAVAL BASE

IN THE WORLD:

BY 2040 WILL BE INUNDATED

BY DAILY TIDES,

NOT EVEN STORM SURGES.

[CHENEY]

THEY'RE ALREADY RAISING

THE LEVEL OF THE PIERS.

AT THE LEVEL THEY'RE AT,

THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE

TO SERVICE THE SHIPS

THAT ARE COMING IN.

THIS IS OUR LARGES NAVAL BASE IN THE WORLD.

[BREEN]

THERE'S SERIOUS

CONSIDERATIONS HERE.

THE WELFARE OF NORFOLK

HAS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

BECAUSE OF THE POWER

THAT IS PROJECTED

FROM THAT PLACE:

AROUND THE WORLD.

[CHENEY]

IT'S NOT JUST THE CASE

WHERE YOU'LL DEPLOY THESE FORCES

IN A PARTICULAR CONFLICT,

BUT YOU'LL ALSO

HAVE TO DEPLOY THEM

TO RESPOND TO CATASTROPHIC

WEATHER EVENTS,

AND THE PRIME EXAMPLE

THAT I USE:

IS TYPHOON HAIYAN

IN THE PHILIPPINES.

WE SENT SOME 14,000

SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AIRMEN,

AND MARINES IN RESPONSE

TO THAT CATASTROPHIC EVENT.

WE WERE THE ONLY COUNTRY

THAT'S CAPABLE OF DOING THAT,

OF DEPLOYING:

THAT AMOUNT OF FORCES,

THAT AMOUNT OF DISTANCE.

[TITLEY]

AS THE SEA LEVELS RISE,

AS THE STORM SURGES INCREASE,

AS THE RAIN RATES INCREASE,

IT THEN BECOMES:

A CAPACITY ISSUE.

HOW MUCH OF THAT CAN YOU DO

BEFORE YOU START IMPACTING

OTHER MISSIONS?

[BREEN]

EVERY TWO WEEKS:

THE U.S. MILITARY

NOW IS GETTING:

A DISASTER RESPONSE.

SO THOSE SAME SAILORS

LEAVE NORFOLK, VIRGINIA,

CHALLENGED BY CLIMATE CHANGE,

CHALLENGED BY SEA LEVEL RISE,

SAIL HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD,

RESPOND TO A SERIES

OF DISASTERS:

THAT ARE RELATED

TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

IN THE HEAVILY POPULATED

PACIFIC RIM,

AND ON THE WAY HOME THEY MAY

STEAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAS WHERE A CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA

AND NOW IN OTHER PARTS

OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO RAGE,

THAT IN MANY WAYS

WAS ACCELERATED BY A DROUGH THAT WAS WORSE BECAUSE

OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

SO THEY'RE SEEING

THE IMPACTS OF THIS

FROM THE TIME:

THEY'D GET ON THE BOA AND GO ON THE DEPLOYMEN TO THE TIME THEY GET HOME.

WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO MAKE

AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICUL SERIES OF CHOICES.

WE'RE ALREADY

MAKING THOSE CHOICES

ABOUT WHERE TO GO

AND WHERE TO USE RESOURCES,

WHEN TO RESPOND:

AND WHEN NOT TO.

[REPORTER]

80% OF NEW ORLEANS

UNDERWATER RIGHT NOW.

I SAID, "WE WAS PLANNING ON

LEAVING TOMORROW IF WE COULD."

THERE'S NO QUESTION

THAT COMMUNITIES

THAT HAVE FEWER RESOURCES

ARE GOING TO SUFFER MORE.

IF YOU LOOK IN THIS COUNTRY,

THE EFFECTS:

ARE GOING TO BE UNEVEN.

SOME PLACES:

ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE

MORE DRAMATIC EFFECTS

THAN OTHERS.

[REPORTER]

PEOPLE TRAPPED IN BUILDINGS

THAT HAVE COME DOWN

AROUND THEM.

THEY HAVE MADE DESPERATE CALLS

TO 911 ASKING FOR HELP,

ASKING FOR RESCUE,

BUT THE RESCUERS CAN'T GET OUT.

[REPORTER]

PEOPLE ARE NOW:

LIVING IN PARKING GARAGES.

OTHERS PICKED UP

WHAT THEY COULD:

AND MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND

ON THE INTERSTATE,

REFUGEES IN THEIR OWN

HOME TOWN.

[WOMAN]

WE DON'T HAVE TRANSPORTATION.

I MEAN, WE LIVING

PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK.

IT AIN'T LIKE WE'RE JUST ABLE

TO GET UP AND JUST LEAVE.

[REPORTER]

THOSE PEOPLE WHO IGNORED

THE EVACUATION ORDERS

ARE SIMPLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAI AND RESCUE THEMSELVES.

[REPORTER]

THOUSANDS OF EVACUEES

SOUGHT REFUGE:

INSIDE THE SUPER DOME,

ONLY TO BE SUBJECTED

TO AN UNSPEAKABLE

BREAKDOWN OF LAW AND ORDER.

[SNYDER]

WHAT KATRINA SHOWS IS

THAT CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS

CAN CREATE MASSIVE DISTRESS

ON A SCALE OF A WHOLE URBAN AREA

AND THAT THAT MASSIVE DISTRESS

CAN INVOLVE THE COLLAPSE

OF STATE STRUCTURES.

[MAN]

YOU WOULD NEVER, NEVER IMAGINE

WHAT YOU SAW IN THE CONVENTION

CENTER IN NEW ORLEANS.

THEY ARE JUST LEFT BEHIND.

THERE'S NOTHING OFFERED TO THEM

FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS.

THEY GOT CHILDREN OUT HERE!

THEY GOT PREGNAN WOMEN OUT HERE!

THEY WON'T EVEN BRING WATER!

THEY WON'T BRING FOOD!

YOU GOTTA GO STEAL WATER

TO DRINK TO SURVIVE OUT HERE.

[SNYDER]

ONE CAN TRY:

TO BRACKET THAT OFF

AS SOME KIND:

OF EXCEPTIONAL EVENT,

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