The Age of Consequences Page #6

IN THE LAST WEEK ALONE.

EUROPE IS SUFFERING

A MAJOR MIGRATION CRISIS

BECAUSE OF:

THE CONFLICTS IN SYRIA,

THE WIDER MIDDLE EAST,

AND EAST AFRICA.

[REPORTER]

THEY'VE BEEN ARRIVING

BY THE BOATLOADS

ON EUROPEAN SHORES DAILY.

NOW THE HEAD OF THE U.N.'S

REFUGEE AGENCY:

IS CALLING THE MIGRANT CRISIS

IN THE MEDITERRANEAN

TOTAL CHAOS.

[CHENEY]

THEY'RE WILLING

TO RISK THEIR LIVES

AND THEIR FAMILY LIVES

TO GET TO EUROPE.

THAT'S PRETTY DESPERATE.

[SHOUTING]

[REPORTER]

IT'S A REFUGEE CRISIS

WITH NO PRECEDEN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION'S HISTORY.

[REPORTER]

AS THEIR NUMBERS SPIRAL

ALONG WITH THE DEATH COUNT,

EUROPE IS UNDER:

ACUTE PRESSURE TO ACT.

[REPORTER]

TENSIONS ARE AT BOILING POINT.

[REPORTER]

MACEDONIA CLOSED ITS BORDER.

SPECIAL FORCES FIRED

STUN GRENADES INTO THE CROWD.

[REPORTER]

THE E.U.'s RESPONSE

HAS BEEN CRITICIZED

AS AT BES INCOHERENT AND AT WORS CALLOUS AND INHUMANE.

[MAN]

WE'RE GONNA PUT IN MORE FENCING,

MORE RESOURCES.

[PARENTI]

THE POLITICS:

OF THE ARMED LIFEBOA REFERS TO AN ACKNOWLEDGEMEN THAT, YES, THERE IS A CRISIS,

BUT, NO, WE ARE NO ALL IN IT TOGETHER.

WE HAVE TO KEEP THE VICTIMS

OF THIS CRISIS OU SO WE CAN CARRY ON AS BEFORE

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WALL.

[SULLIVAN]

WHAT'S ALARMING

IS THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE

IN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES

TAKING THE RISKS THEY DO.

[WOMAN SPEAKING

IN NATIVE LANGUAGE]

PEOPLE IN COUNTRIES

WHERE INSTABILITY WAS REIGNING,

THEY FEEL THAT THEY HAVE

NO OTHER CHOICE.

[REPORTER]

WITH THE CONTINUING TURMOIL

IN THE MIDDLE EAST,

THE NUMBER OF DESPERATE PEOPLE

WILLING TO RISK EVERYTHING

IS EXPECTED TO RISE.

OKAY?

[TITLEY]

WHEN WE REALLY STEP BACK,

PEOPLE ARE PRETTY MUCH

THE SAME.

WE WANT ADEQUATE FOOD,

ADEQUATE SHELTER,

SAFE WATER.

IF YOU HAVE LARGE NUMBERS

OF DISPLACED PEOPLE

AND THEIR NEEDS:

ARE NOT BEING MET,

THEN THIS BECOMES

A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY.

[COUGHING]

[MAN SPEAKS NATIVE LANGUAGE]

[PARENTI]

WHO IS A CLIMATE REFUGEE

AND WHO IS AN ECONOMIC REFUGEE?

IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY.

THE TWO THINGS:

ARE BOUND UP TOGETHER.

MOST CLIMATE REFUGEES

ARE NOT DISPLACED

SO CLEARLY BY CLIMATE CHANGE.

RATHER IT'S A MIX OF FORCES

THAT DRIVES THEM

OFF THE LAND.

[KING]

UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW,

THERE IS NO STATUS

OF CLIMATE REFUGEE.

PART OF THIS IS POLITICAL.

BECAUSE IF THERE WERE,

THEN IT WOULD COMPEL NATIONS

TO ACCEPT CLIMATE MIGRANTS

AS ASYLEES.

[SNYDER]

THE LONGER:

THAT CLIMATE CHANGE GOES ON,

THE MORE THAT WE FEEL IT,

THE MORE:

THAT WE EXPERIENCE IT,

PEOPLE ARE GONNA

WANNA COME NORTH.

THE ONLY BORDER WHICH IS REAL

IS THE ATMOSPHERE.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PERMEABLE.

[FUERTH]

LINEAR THINKING SAYS

THAT IF YOU HAVE

A CHANGE OF A CERTAIN MAGNITUDE

IN A SYSTEM,

YOU CAN PREDICT THE CHANGE

IN ITS OUTPUT.

NON-LINEARITY SAYS

RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES

CAN LEAD TO VERY LARGE

AND UNPREDICTABLE CIRCUMSTANCES

ON THE OUTPUT SIDE.

LET'S SUPPOSE THAT THE RATE

OF WHICH THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING

IS NOT LINEAR BUT IS ON A CURVE

THAT'S GETTING VERY STEEP.

TAKE THE RATE AT WHICH

ARCTIC ICE IS MELTING,

THE RATE AT WHICH

THE GLACIERS ARE RETREATING.

AT THE BEGINNING

OF THESE PROCESSES,

YOU CREATE A GRAPH.

IF I START MEASURING

OVER TIME,

I KEEP ON DISCOVERING

THINGS ARE HAPPENING FASTER

THAN YOU MIGHT EXPECT.

AND ALL OF:

OUR OLD PROJECTIONS

TURN OUT TO BE:

EXCESSIVELY CONSERVATIVE.

I WORRY ABOUT A DISCREPANCY

BETWEEN THE RATE AT WHICH

WE SET OU TO DEAL WITH THESE THINGS

AND THE RATE AT WHICH

THEY ARE OCCURRING.

WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS A PROBLEM

OF COMPOUNDING RISK.

A GOOD EXAMPLE IS BANGLADESH.

[MUNIR MUNIRUZZAMAN]

BANGLADESH IS PROBABLY THE

GROUND ZERO OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

THE IMPACTS ARE GOING

TO BE MORE SEVERE

IN BANGLADESH:

THAN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES

WHERE THEY HAVE:

SMALLER POPULATION SIZE.

[BREEN]

IN A CLIMATE SCENARIO

WHERE SEA LEVEL RISE OCCURS,

ESPECIALLY:

IF IT OCCURS RAPIDLY,

THERE'S A REAL RISK

THAT A LARGE PORTION

OF THE BANGLADESHI POPULATION

IS GONNA HAVE TO MOVE.

[MUNIRUZZAMAN]

THE SEA LEVEL WILL CONTINUE

TO RISE IN THE COMING YEARS,

BECAUSE THERE IS MELTING

AT A FASTER RATE THAN EVER.

IF THERE IS A ONE-METER

SEA LEVEL RISE,

BANGLADESH WILL LOSE ABOU 20% OF ITS LAND MASS.

WE ARE GOING TO SEE

A VERY LARGE:

CLIMATE REFUGEE POPULATION.

RESEARCHERS HAVE

ESTIMATED THE NUMBERS

TO BE ABOUT 30 MILLION.

THIS IS A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

OF EPIC PROPORTIONS.

WHERE ARE THESE REFUGEES

GOING TO GO?

[MUNIRUZZAMAN]

INDIA HAS ALREADY

UNILATERALLY FENCED BANGLADESH

ON ALL THREE SIDES.

[BREEN]

A TEN-FOOT, DOUBLE-SIDED,

RAZOR-WIRE-TOPPED, WHAT MAY BE

THE WORLD'S FIRST CLIMATE FENCE.

[REPORTER]

IT'S INSPIRED BY ISRAEL'S WALL

IN THE WEST BANK,

AND IT'S MANNED BY 80,000

INDIAN GUARDS.

DEATH CAN BE THE PENALTY

FOR CROSSING I OR EVEN GOING NEAR IT,

WITH HUNDREDS OF UNARMED

VILLAGERS KILLED

ALONG WHAT IS NOW

ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS

FRONTIERS IN THE WORLD.

[BREEN]

THERE ARE OTHER REASONS

FOR INDIA TO BUILD THAT FENCE,

BUT PROBABLY THE MOST PRESSING

AND STRATEGIC REASON

IS TO FORESTALL:

THAT CLIMATE MIGRATION.

[MUNIRUZZAMAN]

NO FACTOR CAN BE EXCLUDED

FROM THE IMPACTS

OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

WE HAVE GOT TO SEE

THE CONSEQUENCES

OF THE CONSEQUENCES.

WE ARE GOING TO SEE

MULTIPLE STRESSORS

COMING AT ONE POIN AT ONE TIME.

STRESS ON THE WATER SECTOR,

FOOD SECTOR,

PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE,

THAT COULD LEAD:

TO A STATE COLLAPSE.

IT WILL BE A PROBLEM

OF THE MAGNITUDE

THAT WILL DESTABILIZE

NOT ONLY BANGLADESH,

BUT IT WILL SEVERELY IMPAC ON INTERNATIONAL STABILITY,

HAVING CONSEQUENCES

BEYOND IMAGINATION.

WE DON'T NOW HAVE THE LUXURY,

AND WE PROBABLY NEVER WILL,

OF SORT OF ISOLATING

ONE DRIVER OF A SITUATION

AND SAYING, "OKAY, LET'S SOLVE

FOR THAT DRIVER."

WE'RE ALWAYS GOING TO BE

DEALING WITH A LAYER CAKE

OF INTER-CONNECTED PROBLEMS.

SO IF YOU HAVE:

A CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIO

THAT'S SUFFICIENT TO RAISE

THE SEA LEVEL IN BANGLADESH,

WHAT IS THA TEMPERATURE SPIKE DOING

TO THE HIMALAYAN ICE CAPS

THAT SUPPLY:

THE ANNUAL WATER CYCLE

FOR MOST OF:

THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION?

SO NOW YOU'VE GOT POTENTIAL

DROUGHT AND FOOD SCARCITY

IN ONE AREA:

THAT'S INTERSECTING

WITH FLOODING AND MASSIVE

REFUGEE FLOWS IN THE OTHER AREA.

WHAT'S THE POLITICAL

SITUATION WHEN IT HAPPENS?

IF INDIA AND CHINA

ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE

A BORDER DISPUTE

DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME,

THAT BORDER DISPUTE JUST GO A LOT MORE SERIOUS.

THIS IS SOMETHING

THAT COULD PLACE

MASSIVE STRESS:

ON THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM.

IT'S THESE COMPOUNDING

RISK FACTORS,

THESE COMPOUNDING DYNAMICS

THAT I THINK OUGH TO REALLY CONCERN US.

[FUERTH]

IF YOU LOOK AT ISSUES

OF WATER FLOW:

FROM THE HIMALAYAN PLATEAU,

THERE ARE COUNTRIES THA ARE ON THE RECEIVING END

OF THOSE FLOWS OF WATER

THAT ARE NUCLEAR-ARMED.

IF THE SUPPLY OF WATER

BECOMES INCREASINGLY TIGHT,

THEN IF SOMEBODY DECIDES

TO BUILD A DAM ON THEIR SIDE,

THAT CAN LOOK TO SOMEBODY

ON THE LOSING END

LIKE AN ACT OF WAR.

THE RISK OF ANY CONFLIC IN THE MODERN WORLD

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